Weather Forecast

 

This is a forecast specifically for the Parish

Weather Forecast for Appleton from Friday 3rd. February 2012.
Day Sun Rain % Hi Lo Wind From Notes
Friday Some -- 0 -5 3 var  
Saturday Some 200 1 -7 14 S   20% snow risk
Sunday Little 70 2 -1 7 N  
Monday None 30 2 0 4 SW  
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday		 Little -- 0 -4 8 SE  

© John Evans & Peter Jennings

Extra Notes: Unremitting cold and snow possible Saturday night.

Technical notes

Rain
This is given as a percentage of the long-term average daily rainfall – 2mm per 24 hours – for the parish.

Wind

This is given as typical daytime wind speeds in mph.

Accuracy
This medium-term forecast is intended to be a guide to the possible weather in Appleton during the next week. It is generated at about 08:00 each Friday and is a guide to potential extremes of weather e.g. heavy snow or rain, extreme heat etc.

The accuracy of weather forecasts is not high. For example, the meteorologists at RAF Brize Norton have to provide a forecast for the airfield only and for no more than 24 ahead. They seldom give a probability of accuracy of more than 40% in their forecasts - even when they have a storm staring them in the face.

The probability of this Appleton forecast being spot-on is no more than 10-20% - about as good as can be for a medium term forecast. The probability will be greatest on the weekend and will then fall to the following Thursday.

Origins

This forecast is based on the General Forecast System (GFS) produced by NOAA - the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the USA. This global forecast is provided free at six hourly intervals to a resolution of 0.5 degree (40 miles NS and 20 miles EW locally). Site specific forecasts are derived by interpolation of the point forecasts.

Almost all free website forecasts use the GFS and process it to yield forecasts in their preferred style.

I look at two such GFS based web forecasts with which I am familiar and taking into account their known biases I make one for Appleton.

The two forecasts I look at are are:

netweather
xcweather

More information on GFS:

Wikipedia Global_Forecast_System

The Brize Norton 12H/24H forecast is produced in an aviation code (designed around Morse code) but a fair “translation” of that is here:

metar-taf

It is useful as a local forecast over the very short, a few hours, term. 

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