Weather Forecast

This is a forecast specifically for the Parish

Weather Forecast for Appleton from Friday 3rd September 2010
Day Sun Rain % Hi Lo Wind From Notes
Friday some -- 20 10 6 E  
Saturday some 5 21 10 7 E  
Sunday some -- 22 12 7 E  
Monday some   -- 22 13 13 E  
Tuesday little  1300 18 13 13 SE  Torrential
Wednesday little  100 19 11 2 S  
Thursday some  50 18 10 6 NE  

© John Evans

Extra Notes: Possible torrential reain around Tuesday.

Technical notes

Rain

This is given as a percentage of the long-term average daily rainfall – 2mm per 24 hours – for the parish.

Wind

This is given as typical daytime wind speeds in mph.

Accuracy

This medium-term forecast is intended to be a guide to the possible weather in Appleton during the next week. It is generated at about 08:00 each Friday and is a guide to potential extremes of weather e.g. heavy snow or rain, extreme heat etc.

The accuracy of weather forecasts is not high. For example, the meteorologists at RAF Brize Norton have to provide a forecast for the airfield only and for no more than 24 ahead. They seldom give a probability of accuracy of more than 40% in their forecasts - even when they have a storm staring them in the face.

The probability of this Appleton forecast being spot-on is no more than 10-20% - about as good as can be for a medium term forecast. The probability will be greatest on the weekend and will then fall to the following Thursday.

Origins

This forecast is based on the General Forecast System (GFS) produced by NOAA - the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the USA. This global forecast is provided free at six hourly intervals to a resolution of 0.5 degree (40 miles NS and 20 miles EW locally). Site specific forecasts are derived by interpolation of the point forecasts.

Almost all free website forecasts use the GFS and process it to yield forecasts in their preferred style.

I use two such GFS based web forecasts, with which I am familiar, taking into account their known biases, to yield one for Appleton.

The two forecasts I use to derive the above are:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=forecast;type=home
http://www.xcweather.co.uk

More information on GFS:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System

The Brize Norton 12H/24H forecast is produced in an aviation code (designed around Morse code) but a fair “translation” of that is here:

 http://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/united-kingdom-ireland.php?icao=EGVN

It is useful as a local forecast over the very short, a few hours, term.

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